A brand calculates value at the time of conversion based on propensity and churn signals. Which value-centric category does this fall under?
Correct Answer
Predictive
Why is this the correct answer?
This is a predictive value. The brand is not recording revenue that has already happened, and it is not applying a single averaged stand-in to every conversion. It is scoring each individual conversion at the moment it occurs, using signals about that customer's propensity to buy again and their likelihood of churning, to estimate what they will be worth over time. That makes the value personalised and model-driven, which is what distinguishes predictive from proxy. A proxy value applies the same calculated figure to every instance of a conversion type — every quote request worth £100, say — whereas a predictive value might score one signup at £40 and another at £400 based on their expected future behaviour. Predictive values are powerful for value-based bidding because they let the AI chase customers with high lifetime worth rather than whoever converts most cheaply today.
Why are the other options wrong?
Actual
Actual values are real revenue recorded at the point of conversion, such as an order total. Nothing here has been earned yet.
Proxy
A proxy applies one estimated figure to all conversions of a type. This brand is scoring each conversion individually from signals.
Manual
Manual is not one of the value-centric categories. The described approach is modelled, not hand-entered.
Real-world example
A subscription box company scores each new signup at conversion time using predicted churn: customers choosing an annual plan from a high-retention acquisition source get a value of £310, monthly signups from discount queries £70. Value-based bidding shifts budget towards the annual-plan audience, and average customer lifetime value rises.
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